February 11, 2010
Most traders have heard of seasonal patterns, something which is mostly associated with commodities. The foreign exchange market also has calendar patterns which influence trading, and just like in commodities, traders can take advantage of them to improve their odds for success and profits.
Monthly Patterns
Nearly all currency pairs have one or more months during which they have a directional tendency. There are three pairs in particular which have traded in the same direction during a particular month at least seven years in a row. AUD/JPY has risen in January, while USD/CAD has fallen in June and USD/JPY has dropped in August. In each case, the moves have been significant. Lets take a look at USD/JPY as an example.
On average, USD/JPY has declined over 325 points each year since 1999 in the month of August, which translates to 2.80%. While the percentage does not seem extraordinary, when one takes leverage in to consideration, it is a different story. Had one shorted 100,000 USD/JPY at the start of each August and closed that position out at the end of the month, the total profit would have been in excess of $20,000 (not taking in to account interest carry). That is an outstanding return considering the margin requirement for a position like that is only $2,000. And this does not even consider compounding!
Weekday Patterns
For the short-term trader, there are also patterns of behavior which are based on weekdays. It is a little more complicated, however, than just saying buy or sell on Monday, for example. A secondary condition must be applied, which can be accomplished using the month. The result is patterns which take place on certain weekdays during a given month.
An example of this kind of pattern is GBP/USD on Mondays in December. The pound has risen 73% of the time on Monday during the last month of the year since 1999 (31 observations). The average move has been 40 pips. Assuming a 5 pip spread, a trader who entered traded this pattern over the last seven years would have booked over 1000 pips in profits, which translates to more than $10,000 if one took positions of 100,000 GBP/USD each time.
Trading the Patterns
The examples outlined above are just a couple of the patterns which can be found in the forex market. There are many worth incorporating in to ones trading. Obviously, one strategy which could be employed is a simple enter-and-hold based on the pattern for a given month or weekday. That, however, does leave one open to the both in-trade draw downs, some of which can be substantial, and the simple fact that patterns do not always repeat every time, and sometimes change.
An alternative to enter-and-hold is to use calendar patterns to bias ones trading. For example, a day trader could look for opportunities to buy in to weakness in GBP/USD on Mondays in December. Similarly, a swing trader could use short-term breakdowns to enter in to short trades in USD/JPY during August.
The trader looking to employ forex calendar patterns must utilize the same good risk procedures as are always necessary. This applies regardless of the strategy employed.
Tags: Calendar Patterns, Commodities Traders, Currency Pairs, Different Story, Foreign Exchange Market, Leverage, Margin Requirement, Month Of August, Month Of The Year, Odds, Pip, Pips, Profits, Seasonal Patterns, Seven Years, Tendency, Term Trader, Usd Cad, Usd Jpy, Weekdays
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February 10, 2010
Forex Trading: Calculating Profit And Loss In Foreign Currency Trading
The foreign exchange market, or Forex market, is an around-the-clock cash market where the currencies of nations are bought and sold. Forex trading is always done in currency pairs. For example, you buy Euros, paying with U.S. Dollars, or you sell Canadian Dollars for Japanese Yen. The value of your Forex investment increases or decreases because of changes in the currency exchange rate or Forex rate. These changes can occur at any time, and often result from economic and political events. Using a hypothetical Forex investment, this article shows you how to calculate profit and loss in Forex trading.
To understand how the exchange rate can affect the value of your Forex investment, you need to learn how to read a Forex quote. Forex quotes are always expressed in pairs. In the following example, your pair of currencies are the U.S. Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Forex quote, USD/CAD = 170.50, means that one U.S. Dollar is equal to 170.50 Canadian Dollars. The currency to the left of the “/” (USD in this example) is referred to as base currency and its value is always 1. The currency to the right of the “/” (CAD in this example) is referred to as the counter currency. In this example, one USD can buy 170.50 CAD, because it is the stronger of the two currencies. The U.S. Dollar is regarded as the central currency of the Forex market, and it is always treated as the base currency in any Forex quote where it is one of the pairs.
Let’s go now to our hypothetical Forex investment to show how you can profit or come up short in Forex trading. In this example, your pair of currencies are the U.S. Dollar and the Euro. The Forex rate of EUR/USD on August 26, 2003 was 1.0857, which means that one U.S. Dollar was equal to 1.0857 Euros, and was the weaker of the two currencies. If you had bought 1,000 Euros on that date, you would have paid $1,085.70.
One year later, the Forex rate of EUR/USD was 1.2083, which means that the value of the Euro increased in relation to the USD. If you had sold the 1,000 Euros one year later, you would have received $1,208.30, which is $122.60 more than what you had started with one year earlier.
Conversely, if the Forex rate one year later had been EUR/USD = 1.0576, the value of the Euro would have weakened in relation to the U.S. Dollar. If you had sold the 1,000 Euros at this Forex rate, you would have received $1,057.60, which is $28.10 less than what you had started out with one year earlier.
As with stocks and mutual funds, there is risk in Forex trading. The risk results from fluctuations in the currency exchange market. Investments with a low level of risk (for example, long-term government bonds) often have a low return. Investments with a higher level of risk (for example, Forex trading) can have a higher return. To achieve your short-term and long-term financial goals, you need to balance security and risk to the comfort level that works best for you.
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February 8, 2010
When the market explodes out of a channel, either rising above resistance or dropping below support, use the momentum technique with the MACD. This is generally a position trade, lasting several days or even a month. While youll pay a small overnight renewal fee (with most brokers) to keep the trade active, these trades generally bring in enough pips to make holding the position well worth your while.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is a popular indicator that works well in momentum markets. MACD (pronounced mac-d) plots three different exponential moving averages, and displays them as two lines of different colors that criss-cross atop the chart itself or within the window below it. One line is the MACD itself; the other is called the signal or trigger line.
The MACD also plots a histogram, which is a sort of bar chart in the window below the currency pairs price chart. On the MACD histogram, there is a line that signals the zero point, called the centerline, and the bars of its chart rise and fall above and below that centerline like a wave. The histogram illustrates the difference between the MACD line and its signal line; when they cross each other, the histogram will read zero.
If your software platform wants you to set the configuration of the MACD, the most popular settings are 12 and 26 for the indicator itself and 9 for the signal line. Experiment to find what works best for you and your own trading style.
Like the RSI, MACD can indicate when a currency pair is overbought or oversold. Theres no specific number to indicate this, but when the lines of the histogram get really long, thats a good hint that a reversal could be near.
Again like the RSI, MACD can indicate divergence. When the price reaches a new high or low but the MACD line doesnt, that could mean the momentum is weakening. Again, a reversal could be near.
The technique
When the MACD crosses its signal line, thats an entry signal in the direction the MACD line is going. If it falls below its signal line, look to see if a short trade is feasible; if it rises above it, go long. This signal is considered especially strong if, shortly after the crossover happens, the price of the currency pair breaks above resistance or below support; that could signal a big move.
Be aware that the MACD is a lagging indicator, so its signals wont call the absolute highs and lows for you. Thats why its not helpful in a range-bound market: if you base your entry points only on the MACD, by the time the indicator catches up to the current price, the price may have risen or fallen so far within the channel that theres no longer enough of a trade left to be profitable.
When using the MACD in a momentum market, where price has broken through support or resistance and is reaching new highs or lows, the MACD signals may start showing divergence, indicating the trend is weakening when perhaps it really isnt. In that situation, watch the price chart itself, and compare what it is telling you to what the indicators show.
For example, lets say the GBP/USD has broken out above resistance and is reaching new highs. The MACD signaled the break by crossing over its trigger line, but as the price continues to rise, the MACD doesnt reach new highs, indicating divergence, and you wonder if the trend is weakening. Meanwhile, the price continues to rise.
Should you bail out? No. Watch the chart.
As the GBP/USD continues to rise, it will fluctuate in short- and intermediate term trends, going down a bit then rising again. This is called market jitters, or swing lows (if the currency pair was falling, they would be called swing highs). Dont let it bother you; its perfectly normal.
Notice that each new swing low is higher than the one before. The market doesnt swing down so much that the long-term trend changes; it just retraces itself for a while, then resumes its climb. It looks rather like someone dribbling a basketball up a hill, each dribble higher than the one before. (You do, of course, have your stop set far enough away that the swings dont trigger it and kick you out of a profitable trade. Hopefully your broker offers a trailing stop, so it rises to follow as the price goes up, locking in your profits.)
Wait for that pattern to change. When a swing low goes lower than the previous one, thats the bail-out point. Close your trade, then sit back and calculate your profits.
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